obama’s conundrum

On September 9, 2009 President Obama will address a Joint Session of Congress to speak on Health Care Reform. He has two choices: He can lay out specific plans, or he can urge Congress to get the job done. The problem is that this initiative is such a mess and political hot potato that either choice is risky. He grossly overestimated his ability to lead in this arena and to have his way with National Health Reform.

Presidential aides have promised Obama will take back the reins after allowing Congress to work its will on his idea, without one specific plan for Democratic lawmakers to defend back home. We’re entering a new season,” senior adviser David Axelrod said in an interview Tuesday. “It’s time to synthesize and harmonize these strands and get this done. We’re confident that we can do that. But obviously it is a different phase. We’re going to approach it in a different way. The president is going to be very active.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/26700.html#ixzz0Q26QqLTu From Politico, read more here..

If he lays out specific plans, he has no wriggle room. If it doesn’t pass It is his huge oboner. He owns it. This doesn’t seem like his normal strategy so I think its unlikely he’ll lay our specific plans without a lot of wriggle room. If he chooses this route the “plans” will seem specific but leave all his options for denial or taking the credit in place while leaving it up to Congress to compromise the bill to such an extent that none of them will survive the wrath of the voters.

If he “urges” Congress to get the job done it will be seen as weak by his constituents because they believe he has the power to do anything and will see this as going back on, or not fulfilling, a campaign promise. Congress will see it for what it is – a lame attempt to set Congress up for the fall when it doesn’t pass while immediately taking credit for it if it does. And reserving the option of wriggling, if after passing it, all goes bad.

This is a risky, desperate move. For his political career it has the potential to be the “mother of all oboners” until now and could lameduckize the balance of his presidency. It also has the potential to take down Pelosi and if you think she doesn’t see that…

If he was thinking smart rather than arrogant he’d sit quietly right now let Congress take the fall.

I take full responsibility for my own opinions, comments and slurs against asshats.  I'm just another guy with just another opinion. Although, I may be turning into my father who my mother always said was 'the world's foremost authority."

About this entry